Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.5%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 26, 10:53 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Spain lose any territory before 01/01/2030? (Either land or territorial waters)
Manifold MarketsWill US annex any territory in 2026?
PolymarketWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by which date?
PolymarketUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by which date?
PolymarketWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine recognize the separation of any portion of its territory in 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if Ukraine’s net territorial loss within its 1991 borders is greater in 2026 than it was in 2025, according to a majority of the following sources:
- Black Bird Group
- Creamy caprice
- If a source fails to provide the necessary information within seven days of the market closing, it will be excluded and a majority of the remaining sources will be required for a YES resolution.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.7M
- 24h Vol
- $487.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $111.1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025? resolve?
- Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria