Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.3%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 26, 11:45 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Sumy by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the formal conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine militarily recaptures Sumy Oblast.
- For the purpose of this market, Ukraine has recaptured Sumy Oblast once Russia controls no more than 100 square kilometres of the region.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO.
- Clarifications
- The close date may be extended as necessary.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-8.5pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $424.6K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $286K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.8%
- September 3011.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war? resolve?
- Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria