Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by which date?
0.3 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 2%-0.3ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
$14.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.9 pt
Tight spreadComments
11
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 9:18 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.