PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMarch 31, 2027 7%-1.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$47.4K
Liquidity
$37K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
16.7%
Wide spread7d Change
-2.0%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 2, 25, 11:46 PMMar 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
March 31, 20277%
Volume trend
$47.4kJul 221d of dataJul 24
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.
- The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map.
- An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify.
- Actual control must be established.