PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
March 31, 2027 8%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$21.5K
Medium liquidityComments
3
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 2, 25, 11:46 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by the named outcome, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.
- The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map.
- An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify.
- Actual control must be established.
Open markets
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- Yes-3.0pt30%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Sumy by which date??
- Polymarket prices March 31, 2027 at 8% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture Sumy by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture Sumy by which date? is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia capture Sumy by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by the named outcome, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.