Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 5:24 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
A civil war will be defined as follows:
- There are at least two organized armed groups
- They're fighting for control of the government, territory, or policy
- The conflict reaches a certain scale of violence--defined here as at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in 2026 according to the high end of the range displayed on Wikipedia.
- If deaths only exceed 1,000 after 2026, it doesn't count.