Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91.3%
Forecasters
58
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 21, 24, 9:08 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following:
- Sustained armed conflict: There must be sustained combat or warfare involving at least 500 casualties (fatalities and injuries combined) among U.S. citizens or residents.
- The conflict must take place on U.S. soil.
- Organized factions: The armed conflict must involve at least two organized groups or militias, with at least one faction declaring opposition to the current U.S. federal government, or opposing the recognized governance of at least three states.
- Declared intent to overthrow or disrupt: At least one faction must publicly declare its intent to overthrow or replace the U.S. federal government, or force the secession of multiple states (minimum of three), or otherwise disrupt the national governance structure (e.g., through regional independence).
- Geographical scope: The conflict must involve violent clashes in at least three states or territories within the U.S. (including federal districts).
