PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 98%-0.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.1% / 3.8%
Spread
2.7 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 14, 26, 8:10 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-1.5pt73%
- September 18+1.0pt68%
- September 11-2.5pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $434.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)3%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80%
- Yes-4.5pt20%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $307.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+4.2pt48.4%
- October 31+1.0pt27.9%
- September 30+2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 202931%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt26%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-2.0pt9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31??
- Polymarket prices No at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31? resolve?
- Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.