Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionCrime & Justice2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 21, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 21, 2029 81.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 21, 2029 81.5%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$143.2
Open interest
$536.4
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 21, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Oct 27, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
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- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 5m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 21, 2029
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to Yes if, during Trump's current Presidential term and before the deadline date, a single presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve names at least 25 Trump administration staff or covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area. Trump administration staff refers to officials and employees of the executive branch (the Executive Office of the President, the executive departments, federal agencies, and the armed forces) who served at any time after Jan 20, 2025. Contractors and other non-employees are not Trump administration staff. A pardon covers staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area if it applies to everyone who held a role, worked at an agency, or worked on a policy, without naming each of them. The group must be defined by executive branch service. A single pardon is one proclamation, executive order, or warrant of clemency. A pardon counts even if no recipient has been charged with a crime, and even if a recipient rejects it. Examples: One proclamation pardoning all officers and employees of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement → resolves to Yes One proclamation pardoning all federal personnel for conduct relating to immigration enforcement → resolves to Yes One warrant naming 30 White House aides → resolves to Yes 40 separate warrants issued on the same day, each naming one aide → resolves to No The following do NOT count: Separate pardons that each name fewer than 25 staff, even if together they name more Pardons defined only by an offense or event and open to people regardless of executive branch service, unless the pardon names at least 25 Trump administration staff Pardons that cover only people whose executive branch service ended before Jan 20, 2025 State pardons
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 21, 2029
- If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.