PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 5%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$7.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 5.1%
Spread
2.0%
Tight spread7d Change
-0.5%
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 1:28 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Volume trend
$18Jul 224d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.