PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 98%+0.1pt
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$9.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 2.7%
Spread
0.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
7d Change
-1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 1:28 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
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PolymarketWill Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
KalshiWill Jonathan Ross (shooter of Renee Nicole Good) be in custody by the end of the year?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be released from prison before Donald Trump dies
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.3pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $76,500 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $637.3K
- 24h Vol
- $630.2K
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.6pt98%
- $25M+1.1pt96%
- $50M+1.5pt88%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETEthereum above ___ on September 9?
- 1,900100%
- 2,000+0.5pt100%
- 2,100+0.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 9?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for SBF released from custody in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does SBF released from custody in 2026? resolve?
- SBF released from custody in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is SBF released from custody in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.