KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
4.8% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 88% ·
4.78% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 94% ·
4.66% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
4.68% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
4.82% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 78% ·
4.84% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 31% ·
4.9% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 20% ·
4.86% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 10% ·
4.88% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 2% ·
4.7% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
4.72% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
4.74% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
4.76% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
4.92% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
4.94% or aboveAwaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 26, 2026, or one week following Oct 26, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.8% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.79% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.78% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.77% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.66% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.65% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.68% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.67% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.82% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.81% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.84% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.83% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.9% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.86% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.88% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.7% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.69% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.72% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.71% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.74% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.73% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.76% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.75% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.92% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.94% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.