Downgrade before 2027?
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored price
Yes 64.5%
Yes 64.5%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$684.3
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
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Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 14, 26, 7:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Yes
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?
KalshiAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
PolymarketWill any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA or lower before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsDrop in India’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurWill Brazil’s sovereign credit rating be downgraded by Fitch, Moody’s, or S&P in 2026?
FutuurRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:SemaforABCBloombergNBCThe Washington PostAssociated PressThe Wall Street JournalFox NewsReutersThe InformationPoliticoAxiosMSNBCCNNthe New York TimesCBS
- A qualifying downgrade is a reduction of at least one notch in France’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating (Moody’s), sovereign credit rating (S&P), or Issuer Default Rating (Fitch), relative to that agency’s immediately preceding rating. Both the downgrade announcement and confirmation by at least one of the Source Agencies must occur during the market period. Scheduled and unscheduled downgrades count; a subsequent upgrade does not negate a downgrade. Outlook changes, watch/review placements, withdrawals, and changes solely to short-term or individual debt-instrument ratings do not count. Ratings of entities other than the Republic of France are excluded.
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.