PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87.1%-0.5pt
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$100
Liquidity
$371.8
Low liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 16.0%
Spread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:56 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
EU debt downgrade before 2027?
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PolymarketWill S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $329K
- 24h Vol
- $13.5K
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%-14.5pt63%
- Below 4.73%-24.0pt49%
- Below 4.61%25%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.74% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.5K
- 24h Vol
- $4.3K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+40.0pt88%
- 4.85%+27.5pt67%
- 4.88%-0.5pt30%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
- 5.13% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.41% or above99%
- 4.43% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Another US debt downgrade before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 87% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Another US debt downgrade before 2027? resolve?
- Another US debt downgrade before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Another US debt downgrade before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET.