KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 90%
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$59.8
Liquidity
$33.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 11.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 1, 26, 5:01 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Brazil’s sovereign credit rating be downgraded by Fitch, Moody’s, or S&P in 2026?
FutuurDrop in India’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurDrop in Mexico’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
PolymarketWill MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?
PolymarketWill S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $329K
- 24h Vol
- $13.5K
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%-14.5pt63%
- Below 4.73%-24.0pt49%
- Below 4.61%25%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.74% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.5K
- 24h Vol
- $4.3K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+40.0pt88%
- 4.85%+27.5pt67%
- 4.88%-0.5pt30%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
- 5.13% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.41% or above99%
- 4.43% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US credit rating downgrade in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 90% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US credit rating downgrade in 2026? resolve?
- US credit rating downgrade in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US credit rating downgrade in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.