KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
4.75% or above · —
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Stored price
5% or above 63.5%Market line of 25 lines
5% or above 63.5%Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$7.5K
Open interest
$1.4K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
4.75% or aboveSpread
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Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 7:30 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 8:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 4.75% or above
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.5% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.49% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.25% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.24% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 6.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 6.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 6.5% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 6.49% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 6.25% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 6.24% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 2.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.25% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 2.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 6.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7.25% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 7.24% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.25% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 3.24% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2.25% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 2.24% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 6% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.5% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 3.49% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2.5% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 2.49% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 8% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 7.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 7.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.5% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7.5% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 7.49% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.