Will US 10-year treasury yield exceed 6 percent before 2028?
One-OffFedInflationBonds & TreasuriesTrade PolicyCentral Banks1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 26, 2:07 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if on any daily reporting date before January 1, 2028, the official 10-year US Treasury yield is reported at or above 6.00%.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for resolution is:
- The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) series DGS10 (Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity).
- If FRED is unavailable or ceases publication, the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates ("10 Yr" column) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury will be used as the secondary source.
