Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 25, 11:27 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWhen will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) goes above 4.00% at any point before January 1, 2028.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source will be the daily data for series DFII30 available on the FRED website: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII30.
