Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 24, 2026, 7:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 50.7%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleOct 10, 25, 11:27 PMDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes51%
Volume trend
$127Jul 194d of dataJul 24
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?
$3002023: 1.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
$250Yes: 76.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSUS defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
$108.2Yes: 2.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will South Korea issue at least ₩16T in KTBs in August 2026?
$11.1Yes: 77.1%
LIMITLESS
LIMITLESS
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$0Yes: 20%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?
$0Yes: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Crypto market breakout could accelerate as AI trade cools, analyst saysCointelegraphCrypto market breakout could accelerate as AI trade cools, analyst saysCointelegraph
BIS warns stablecoins could weaken capital controls in emerging marketsCointelegraph
Hong Kong to Reopen RMB Bonds with Tender on July 23, 2026Blockchain.News
US inflation falls to 3.5% as Bitcoin rebounds toward $65KCrypto News
Polymarket sees 92.5% odds of July Fed hold as crypto jumps on easing inflationBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.