Current community forecast
Yes 52.1%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 25, 2:01 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, any mainstream all-purpose consumer LLM assistant platform (e.g., ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Anthropic Claude, Meta AI, DeepSeek) has credible, public evidence that 10% of its daily active users spend ≥120 minutes per day in that assistant, measured over a period of at least one month FOR NON-WORK-RELATED TASKS
- Acceptable evidence: an official company disclosure; or a reputable third‑party measurement firm (e.g., Similarweb, data.ai/Sensor Tower, Comscore/Nielsen, Ofcom, Pew) publishing a platform‑level time‑spent distribution showing the 10% share.
- Aggregated stats across multiple assistants or across broad suites (e.g., Microsoft 365/Windows-wide “Copilot time”) do not count; the metric must be for a single assistant product.
- If multiple platforms meet the threshold, resolves YES upon the first qualifying publication.
- If no qualifying evidence is published by the deadline, resolves NO.
