Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.

How is Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+12.0pt95%
• December 15,+11.0pt93%
• November 30,+24.0pt88%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.8M

24h Vol

$350.4K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+4.0pt96.5%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+8.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+6.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+3.0pt30.5%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.6pt20%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.6pt17.1%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+0.1pt56.6%
• Gemini+1.8pt32.6%
• ChatGPT-1.2pt

POLYMARKET

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

• $ANT+45.5pt100%
• $AAI-9.8pt0%
• $ANAI-2.8pt0%

+6 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31+2.5pt96%
• October 31-7.8pt37%
• October 30-12.5pt32%

+17 more outcomes

• Which company has the best AI model end of October?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• What will Bernie say during his town hall in Michigan?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Best AI this week
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 26, 2026