Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90%
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81
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 27, 25, 5:31 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
RSG = Random Seed Glitchless
- Must be Java version CAN:
- Can use scaffolds or similar.
- Cannot slow down game time or stuff like that.
- Can't get human help.
- Can't reverse engineer (by running scripts) what seed it is in from world features to know where structures will be before seeing them (eg blind travelling to the stronghold)