Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51.2%
Forecasters
161
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 26, 25, 4:48 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?
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KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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PolymarketRules
RSG = Random Seed Glitchless
- Must be Java version CAN:
- Can use scaffolds or similar.
- Cannot slow down game time or stuff like that.
- Can't get human help.
- Can't reverse engineer (by running scripts) what seed it is in from world features to know where structures will be before seeing them (eg blind travelling to the stronghold)
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028? resolve?
- AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: RSG = Random Seed Glitchless