Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 2:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Polymarket10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
KalshiHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Futuur10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2026 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
- If it is 3.5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
- Otherwise it resolves to NO
- [link preview]
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $347.2K
- 24h Vol
- $14.5K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+45.5pt100%
- 4.85%+27.9pt95%
- 4.91%+73.5pt90%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIHow high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 4.86% or above99%
- 4.87% or above98%
- 4.88% or above97%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.1K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 4.49% or above99%
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.59% or above99%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.3K
- 24h Vol
- $7.3K
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 4.84% or above99%
- 4.72% or above99%
- 4.76% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
- 4.75% or above+2.0pt57%
- 5% or above+9.0pt40%
- 5.15% or above+7.0pt22%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
- UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does 10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026? resolve?
- 10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is 10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2026 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y