Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jan 3, 26, 2:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Polymarket10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
Kalshi10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold Markets10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2026 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
- If it is 3.5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
- Otherwise it resolves to NO
- [link preview]
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $329K
- 24h Vol
- $13.5K
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%-14.5pt63%
- Below 4.73%-24.0pt49%
- Below 4.61%25%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.74% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.5K
- 24h Vol
- $4.3K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+40.0pt88%
- 4.85%+27.5pt67%
- 4.88%-0.5pt30%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
- 5.13% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.41% or above99%
- 4.43% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does 10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026? resolve?
- 10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is 10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2026 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y