KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
4.57% or above · —
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Stored price
4.57% or above 89.5%Market line of 15 lines
4.57% or above 89.5%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$127
Open interest
$100
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
4.57% or aboveSpread
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Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 23, 26, 7:30 PM UTCOct 30, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 4.57% or above
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
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Kalshi30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketRules
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.56% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.57% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.56% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.51% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.50% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.53% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.52% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.55% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.54% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.59% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.58% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.61% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.60% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.63% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.62% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.65% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.67% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.66% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.69% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.68% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.71% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.70% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.73% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.72% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.74% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.77% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.76% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.79% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.78% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.