PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 10%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
11.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 7:28 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Volume trend
$33Jul 314d of dataJul 19
Related Markets
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?
$0Yes: 6%
KALSHI
KALSHI
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$914.0%: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US defaults before 2027?
$0Yes: 4%KALSHI
KALSHI
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$0Yes: 4%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
$0Yes: 4.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?
$3.5K4.51% or above: 27%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Telegram plans ‘largest rollout of a non-custodial crypto wallet in human history’The Block
Hong Kong to Reopen RMB Bonds with Tender on July 23, 2026Blockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For this market to resolve to "Yes", the payment must be a publicly announced, official transaction involving the sending of assets or funds; exploratory or experimental transactions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- Note: A qualifying transaction requires an official US Treasury payment made in the ordinary course of government operations - such as disbursements, settlements, or transfers - conducted via a public blockchain.
- Pilot programs, proof-of-concept transactions, and transactions explicitly described as tests or experiments by the Treasury do not qualify.