Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 11, 25, 12:05 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).
- This includes "technical default"; that is, "default" will be construed very broadly: Any failure of more than a day to make any scheduled payment on any debt instrument previously broadly believed to be valid.
- The resolution to this is unlikely to be subtle, but just in case:
- Traditional CDS trigger events like moratorium, repudiation, or acceleration resolve YES.
- Declaring debt previously considered valid (valued near the market rate) to be invalid, or to make foreign-held debt non-redeemable, would resolve YES.
- The 1979 "mini-default" (payments delayed several weeks due to technology issues) would resolve YES.
