Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 4, 26, 9:51 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Argentina default before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Brightline West open for service before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketOpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Brightline will be considered in default if it fails to make a scheduled debt payment and exhausts its remaining payment deferrals allowed under bond agreements.
- The market resolves YES if Brightline defaults on any of its debt obligations at any point during 2026.
- The market resolves NO if Brightline makes all required debt payments throughout 2026 without triggering a default clause.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Brightline, bond trustee filings with the SEC's EMMA system (https://emma.msrb.org/), or statements from credit rating agencies (S&P Global, Fitch, Moody's).
- Fitch Ratings warned a default by mid-2027 is "highly likely", and S&P projects the most likely path to default is January 1, 2027.
Open markets
Regulation
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt42%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+1.0pt41%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+2.0pt34%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.7M
- 24h Vol
- $54K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.0pt83.2%
- Yes+2.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $51.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt98%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt95%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
POLYMARKETSB Energy IPO by which date?
- December 3187%
- October 3169%
- September 3064%
- Total Vol
- $6.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.5K
POLYMARKETWeed rescheduled by which date?
- December 31-2.2pt16%
- September 30-8.6pt2%
- July 31-1.2pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026 resolve?
- Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria