Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
FedBonds & TreasuriesOne-OffPoliticsMacro & EconomyUS Politics4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 94.2%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 11, 26, 2:28 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if the US federal government has, on or after January 1, 2026 and on or before December 31, 2030, unilaterally restructured previously-issued outstanding marketable US Treasury notes, bonds, or TIPS without bondholder consent.
- YES if any of the following has been announced and taken effect:
- Statutory reduction of stated coupon rate on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled extension of stated maturity on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled swap of outstanding Treasuries for new instruments with materially altered cash flows (lower coupons, longer maturities, principal haircut), including a "Mar-a-Lago Accord"-style forced swap of foreign holdings
- Statutory cap on Treasury interest payments that materially reduces coupon receipts on outstanding debt
