[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Business & CorporateMacro & Economy1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES. 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
34
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 16, 23, 12:06 AM UTCSep 18, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?
Manifold MarketsManifold Credit Default swaps 2030
Manifold MarketsWill the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketWalmart Credit Card Spend in October
KalshiRules
A Credit Default Swap is a financial derivative that allows investors to hedge or speculate on the credit risk of a particular entity.
- Essentially, a CDS is an insurance policy against the default of a borrower.
- In the context of prediction markets like Manifold, we can draw a parallel by considering the likelihood of certain events (or 'defaults') occurring.
- In this case, this market would assess the likelihood of various other markets resolving to a 'Yes' outcome.
- This approach mirrors the CDS concept, as participants are essentially speculating on the 'default' (or outcome) of these other markets.
- Here are the ten open yes/no markets with the most traders.