[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Business & CorporateMacro & Economy2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES. 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
34
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 16, 23, 12:06 AM UTCSep 18, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
A Credit Default Swap is a financial derivative that allows investors to hedge or speculate on the credit risk of a particular entity.
- Essentially, a CDS is an insurance policy against the default of a borrower.
- In the context of prediction markets like Manifold, we can draw a parallel by considering the likelihood of certain events (or 'defaults') occurring.
- In this case, this market would assess the likelihood of various other markets resolving to a 'Yes' outcome.
- This approach mirrors the CDS concept, as participants are essentially speculating on the 'default' (or outcome) of these other markets.
- Here are the ten open yes/no markets with the most traders.
Open markets
Business & Corporate
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.5K
- 24h Vol
- $190.5K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt96%
- Apple-0.1pt3%
- Alphabet+0.2pt1%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt56.4%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.7%
- 90-114+2.1pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $211.6K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.2K
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Chewy active customers in Q2
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES??
- Manifold Markets prices [AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES. at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES? resolve?
- [Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES? is scheduled to resolve on September 18, 2028.
- How is [Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A Credit Default Swap is a financial derivative that allows investors to hedge or speculate on the credit risk of a particular entity.