Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffCrypto Fed Stablecoin Tokenization / RWA5mo

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibrated

Current implied probability

Yes 6%

Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$3.7K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

6.2% / 9.9%

Spread

59.7%

Wide spread

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Dec 3, 25, 11:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes6%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, "Treasury" includes sub-bodies of the Treasury including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Office of Financial Research, or a Treasury-authorized entity conducting a public transaction.
The Payout Criterion includes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, tokenized U.S. government securities, and other assets the Treasury formally recognizes as blockchain-based.
The transaction must occur on a blockchain network that allows for public verification or is explicitly referred to by Treasury as blockchain-based.
The following will trigger the Payout Criterion:
If Treasury orders a blockchain-based disbursement, but the Federal Reserve executes it as its fiscal agent, then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume trend

$0.33

Jul 96d of dataJul 17

Related Markets

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

Yes: 11%

POLYMARKET

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

Yes: 30%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

4.55 or more: 51%

FUTUUR

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$91

4.0%: 100%

POLYMARKET

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$8.4

4.5%: 100%

POLYMARKET

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Exactly 1.50%: 0%

KALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$64,494.22+0.69%

EthereumETH$1,886.17+1.51%

SolanaSOL$74.92+1.37%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.98%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0733+5.58%

BNBBNB$570.52+0.96%

Related News

Augustus Raises $180 Million to Build a Stablecoin-Ready 'Global Dollar Bank'Decrypt

Augustus Raises $180M at $1B Valuation to Build a Global Dollar Bank as Stablecoin Issuers Watch CloselyBlockchain Reporter

Telegram plans ‘largest rollout of a non-custodial crypto wallet in human history’The Block

BIS warns stablecoins could weaken capital controls in emerging marketsCointelegraph

Augustus raises $180 million to build a clearing bank for the AI and stablecoin eraCoindesk

Arcus rolls out 24/7 tokenized US stocks and perpetual markets on Robinhood ChainThe Block

Rules

Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, "Treasury" includes sub-bodies of the Treasury including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Office of Financial Research, or a Treasury-authorized entity conducting a public transaction.
The Payout Criterion includes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, tokenized U.S. government securities, and other assets the Treasury formally recognizes as blockchain-based.
The transaction must occur on a blockchain network that allows for public verification or is explicitly referred to by Treasury as blockchain-based.
The following will trigger the Payout Criterion:
If Treasury orders a blockchain-based disbursement, but the Federal Reserve executes it as its fiscal agent, then the market resolves to Yes.

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffCrypto Fed Stablecoin Tokenization / RWA5mo

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibrated

Current implied probability

Yes 6%

Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$3.7K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

6.2% / 9.9%

Spread

59.7%

Wide spread

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Dec 3, 25, 11:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes6%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, "Treasury" includes sub-bodies of the Treasury including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Office of Financial Research, or a Treasury-authorized entity conducting a public transaction.
The Payout Criterion includes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, tokenized U.S. government securities, and other assets the Treasury formally recognizes as blockchain-based.
The transaction must occur on a blockchain network that allows for public verification or is explicitly referred to by Treasury as blockchain-based.
The following will trigger the Payout Criterion:
If Treasury orders a blockchain-based disbursement, but the Federal Reserve executes it as its fiscal agent, then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume trend

$0.33

Jul 96d of dataJul 17

Related Markets

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

Yes: 11%

POLYMARKET

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

Yes: 30%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

4.55 or more: 51%

FUTUUR

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$91

4.0%: 100%

POLYMARKET

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$8.4

4.5%: 100%

POLYMARKET

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Exactly 1.50%: 0%

KALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$64,494.22+0.69%

EthereumETH$1,886.17+1.51%

SolanaSOL$74.92+1.37%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.98%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0733+5.58%

BNBBNB$570.52+0.96%

Related News

Augustus Raises $180 Million to Build a Stablecoin-Ready 'Global Dollar Bank'Decrypt

Augustus Raises $180M at $1B Valuation to Build a Global Dollar Bank as Stablecoin Issuers Watch CloselyBlockchain Reporter

Telegram plans ‘largest rollout of a non-custodial crypto wallet in human history’The Block

BIS warns stablecoins could weaken capital controls in emerging marketsCointelegraph

Augustus raises $180 million to build a clearing bank for the AI and stablecoin eraCoindesk

Arcus rolls out 24/7 tokenized US stocks and perpetual markets on Robinhood ChainThe Block

Rules

Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, "Treasury" includes sub-bodies of the Treasury including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Office of Financial Research, or a Treasury-authorized entity conducting a public transaction.
The Payout Criterion includes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, tokenized U.S. government securities, and other assets the Treasury formally recognizes as blockchain-based.
The transaction must occur on a blockchain network that allows for public verification or is explicitly referred to by Treasury as blockchain-based.
The following will trigger the Payout Criterion:
If Treasury orders a blockchain-based disbursement, but the Federal Reserve executes it as its fiscal agent, then the market resolves to Yes.