Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?
Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffCryptoFedStablecoinTokenization / RWA3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 91%
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.2% / 7.8%
Spread
6.6 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Dec 3, 25, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
KalshiWill blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
Kalshi2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
KalshiRules
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- For purposes of this Contract, "Treasury" includes sub-bodies of the Treasury including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Office of Financial Research, or a Treasury-authorized entity conducting a public transaction.
- The Payout Criterion includes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, tokenized U.S. government securities, and other assets the Treasury formally recognizes as blockchain-based.
- The transaction must occur on a blockchain network that allows for public verification or is explicitly referred to by Treasury as blockchain-based.
- The following will trigger the Payout Criterion:
- If Treasury orders a blockchain-based disbursement, but the Federal Reserve executes it as its fiscal agent, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $347.2K
- 24h Vol
- $14.5K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+45.5pt100%
- 4.85%+27.9pt95%
- 4.91%+73.5pt90%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIHow high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 4.86% or above99%
- 4.87% or above98%
- 4.88% or above97%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.1K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 4.49% or above99%
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.59% or above99%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.3K
- 24h Vol
- $7.3K
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 4.84% or above99%
- 4.72% or above99%
- 4.76% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
- 4.75% or above+2.0pt57%
- 5% or above+9.0pt40%
- 5.15% or above+7.0pt22%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
- UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain??
- Kalshi prices No at 91% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? resolve?
- Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.