US defaults on debt by 2027?

1.3% (24h)One-OffBonds & Treasuries Macro & Economy US Politics Economy6mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 4%-0.0%

Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality

24h Volume

$451.8

Liquidity

$5.1K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

1.7% / 6.7%

Spread

294.1%

Wide spread

7d Change

-1.1%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Nov 5, 25, 7:50 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes4%

Stake (USDT)

Also available on Kalshi

US defaults before 2027?

6mo

Yes

5%

No

95%

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$10.3

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

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KALSHI

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US defaults on debt by 2027?

1.3% (24h)One-OffBonds & Treasuries Macro & Economy US Politics Economy6mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 4%-0.0%

Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality

24h Volume

$451.8

Liquidity

$5.1K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

1.7% / 6.7%

Spread

294.1%

Wide spread

7d Change

-1.1%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Nov 5, 25, 7:50 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes4%

Stake (USDT)

Also available on Kalshi

US defaults before 2027?

6mo

Yes

5%

No

95%

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$10.3

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Related Markets

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

$0

Yes: 10%

KALSHI

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

$0

Yes: 30%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the national debt surpass 40 trillion during Trumps presidency?

$1K