US defaults on debt by 2027?
1.6 pts (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomy3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%-1.6pt
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$943.7
Liquidity
$2.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
2.7% / 3.8%
Spread
1.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
- The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Prediction Source Comparison
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US defaults on debt by 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US defaults on debt by 2027? resolve?
- US defaults on debt by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is US defaults on debt by 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is US defaults on debt by 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.