US defaults on debt by 2027?
0.7 pts (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomy2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:06 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
No 99%
No 99%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$400.1
Liquidity
$5.2K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$4.4K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
0
7d Change
-0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingNov 5, 25, 7:50 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
- The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.