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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Bonds & Treasuries
  3. US defaults before 2027?
US defaults before 2027?

US defaults before 2027?

One-OffBonds & TreasuriesUS PoliticsMacro & Economy6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 5%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$6.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.4% / 3.8%

Spread

850.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Mar 12, 26, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes5%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

0.1%Closed
Yes
Yes
3%
No
No
97%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$15.5K
24h Vol$5.2
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi