US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
One-OffMacro & EconomyBonds & TreasuriesChinaGeopolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.5%
Forecasters
66
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 25, 9:42 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese state-owned enterprises) by their due date at any time before 2027.
- The default must involve at least $100 million USD in missed payments.
- If the US restructures, delays, or partially reduces payments specifically on Chinese-held debt while maintaining payments to other creditors, this will be considered a selective default and resolve as YES.