Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 2, 25, 10:28 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, on or before 23:59:59 on December 31, 2027 (Paris time), any of the following occurs for the sovereign “French Republic”:
- The ISDA Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee publicly rules a sovereign Credit Event (Failure to Pay, Repudiation/Moratorium, or Restructuring).
- Source: ISDA DC portal and ISDA sovereign credit‑event definitions. [cdsdeterminationscommittees.org], [isda.org] (isda.org)
- S&P Global Ratings assigns France an issuer credit rating of SD (Selective Default) or D. Definitions: S&P/Taiwan Ratings. [taiwanratings.com] (taiwanratings.com)
- Fitch Ratings assigns France an Issuer Default Rating of RD (Restricted Default) or D. Definitions: Fitch Ratings. [your.fitchratings.com] (your.fitchratings.com)