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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?
U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

EconomyOne-OffBonds & Treasuries4mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 12%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.1

Liquidity

$200.3

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

9.0% / 11.0%

Spread

22.2%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Mar 11, 26, 8:00 PMOct 20, 26, 12:29 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes12%

Rules

If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S.

Kalshi
  • Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,663.61+1.88%EthereumETH$1,652.22+1.30%SolanaSOL$65.11+0.89%

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Active in these topics

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Rules

If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S.

Kalshi
  • Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.