KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 98%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$22.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Mar 11, 26, 8:00 PM UTCOct 20, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketWhen will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?
Manifold MarketsHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Polymarket2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiRules
If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Treasury / OMB
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? resolve?
- U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 20, 2026.
- How is U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.