KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 3.00% 99%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 4, 27, 12:55 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SOFR at end of Q3 2026
KalshiHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
Polymarket2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
Kalshi30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiRules
If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $329K
- 24h Vol
- $13.5K
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%-14.5pt63%
- Below 4.73%-24.0pt49%
- Below 4.61%25%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.74% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.5K
- 24h Vol
- $4.3K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+40.0pt88%
- 4.85%+27.5pt67%
- 4.88%-0.5pt30%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
- 5.13% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.41% or above99%
- 4.43% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for SOFR at end of Q4 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above 3.00% at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does SOFR at end of Q4 2026 resolve?
- SOFR at end of Q4 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 4, 2027.
- How is SOFR at end of Q4 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.