Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Fed
KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Fed maintains rate (99%)
Resolved: Apr 29, 2026, 6:06 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Fed maintains rate 96.1%Leader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$753.4K
Liquidity
$152K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 125 days ago
StaleSep 29, 25, 2:00 PMJul 29, 26, 6:01 PM
Trends
96.1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of >25bps on April 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "the named outcome" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt56.4%
- No change-1.0pt41.6%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $76.9M
- 24h Vol
- $4.1M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt58.6%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt37.5%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+8.0pt55.9%
- Fed maintains rate-9.0pt39%
- Cut 25bps2.4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $873.1K
KALSHIFed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Above 3.50%99%
- Above 3.25%99%
- Above 2.75%99%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $359.3K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.4pt88.1%
- 1 (25 bps)+2.0pt8.9%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.8pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes72%
- No28%
- Total Vol
- $8.4M
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed Decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in September?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed decision in Apr 2026??
- Kalshi prices Fed maintains rate at 96% as of April 28, 2026.
- When does Fed decision in Apr 2026? resolve?
- Fed decision in Apr 2026? is scheduled to resolve on July 29, 2026.
- How is Fed decision in Apr 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of >25bps on April 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.