KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 0.25% 99%Leader of 18 outcomes
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$68.7
Liquidity
$24.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 13, 25, 2:00 PMApr 28, 27, 5:55 PM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Apr 28, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.50% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.75% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.00% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt56.4%
- No change-1.0pt41.6%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $76.9M
- 24h Vol
- $4.1M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt58.6%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt37.5%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+8.0pt55.9%
- Fed maintains rate-9.0pt39%
- Cut 25bps2.4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $873.1K
KALSHIFed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Above 3.50%99%
- Above 3.25%99%
- Above 2.75%99%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $359.3K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.4pt88.1%
- 1 (25 bps)+2.0pt8.9%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.8pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes72%
- No28%
- Total Vol
- $8.4M
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed Decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in September?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting??
- Kalshi prices Above 0.25% at 99% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? resolve?
- Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? is scheduled to resolve on April 28, 2027.
- How is Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.