KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Monetary Policy (99%)
Resolved: Sep 3, 2026, 2:28 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 3, 2026, 1:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate68%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline63%
Warsh11%
Bond Market98%
Tariff83%
Recession58%
Productivity73%
Two Percent86%
Trump3%
Monetary PolicyWon
WarshLost
Stock MarketLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Balance SheetLost
InflationLost
Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise RateLost
Two PercentLost
TariffLost
ProductivityLost
Labor / JobLost
Bond MarketLost
StablecoinLost
Crypto / Bitcoin / CryptocurrencyLost
TrumpLost
RecessionLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Economic Outlook At the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Economic Outlook At the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Christopher Waller speaking in an official capacity.