KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 85%
Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 18.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Apr 29, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+0.1pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.1pt13%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $705.5M
- 24h Vol
- $841.9K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $216.9M
- 24h Vol
- $777.7K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No78.2%
- Yes21.8%
- Total Vol
- $15.8M
- 24h Vol
- $566.9K
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt13%
- December-1.0pt6%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.7pt18%
- Jon Ossoff-0.3pt16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt13%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)80%
- New People (NL)-0.1pt16%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Texas Senate Election Winner
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas Governor margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices No at 85% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Texas Governor margin of victory resolve?
- Texas Governor margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Texas Governor margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.