Before Nov 1, 2026
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 87.5%
No 87.5%Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$310.5
Open interest
$1.7K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Oct 19, 26, 3:50 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sébastien Lecornu announces departure as Prime Minister of France?
KalshiNuñez out as French Interior Minister by which date?
PolymarketDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiJeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?
KalshiShawn Fain announces departure as UAW President?
KalshiNext leader out of power before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Ministère de l'IntérieurPrésidence de la RépubliqueThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersthe Journal officiel de la République françaiseCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A resignation offer counts only if its acceptance, or Laurent Nuñez's statement that he is leaving regardless, is announced before Nov 1, 2026; the Oct 18, 2026 offer that President Macron declined on Oct 19 does not count unless its acceptance is announced before then. A collective resignation of the government does not count while he continues to serve, including for current affairs. His departure counts once it is announced that he will not continue as Interior Minister, including a move to another ministry. A statement that he will stay until the government formed after the 2027 presidential election, including that he will not serve in that government, does not count. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.