Sébastien Lecornu announces departure as Prime Minister of France?
PoliticsOne-OffChessElectionSports1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 6:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jul 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Jul 1, 2027 94.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before Jul 1, 2027 94.5%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
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Before Jul 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Oct 21, 26, 8:05 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
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Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jul 1, 2027
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Gouvernement de la République françaisePrésidence de la Républiquethe Journal officiel de la République françaiseReutersthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Postthe New York TimesPoliticoCNNFox News
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A resignation tendered by Sébastien Lecornu counts when it is announced or tendered. This includes the resignation of the Government that Article 50 of the French Constitution requires after the Assemblée nationale adopts a motion of censure or withholds its confidence, and the customary resignation of the Government after a presidential election. It counts even if he continues to handle current affairs until a successor is named, and even if he is named Prime Minister again afterwards. The following do NOT resolve this market to YES: A statement that Sébastien Lecornu is not a candidate in the 2027 presidential election, or that governments customarily resign after a presidential election, unless it also says he will leave office. A motion of censure or a confidence vote that the Assemblée nationale does not adopt. A dissolution of the Assemblée nationale, on its own. A resignation that the President declines, so that the Government's functions do not end. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before May 1, 2027
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.