KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2029 34%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2029 34%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$503.3
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Oct 10, 26, 7:45 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2029
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?
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KalshiMark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?
KalshiWill Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Narendra ModiThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersPrime Minister's Office of IndiaCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that Narendra Modi will not lead the Bharatiya Janata Party into the next general election does not count unless it also says he will leave office before that election. A formal resignation after which he continues in office and is reappointed, such as the customary resignation after a general election, also does not count. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2028
- If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
