Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThe Man Who Killed Don Quioxte 61.5%Leader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 25, 26, 3:08 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 6:53 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Films resolve YES if I see them and award them with a Like, which almost always happens if and only if I give 4+ stars (there has been one exception that got a 4.0 and no like.)
- Films resolve NO if I see them and do not award them with a Like, which almost always implies 3.5 or fewer stars.
- Films resolve NO if I have enough information that I am 90%+ confident they would resolve NO AND 90%+ confident that I would have be rather forced into seeing them or finishing them.
- Films I am 95%+ confident I will not see by Dec 1, 2030 unless forced to, but where I am insufficiently confident to resolve NO, will resolve to a percentage I think is fair, by default market price but if I think it's wrong I will override.
- I plan to edit/refine from here as I go if this proves interesting, or to stop paying new bounties if this proves too fiddly or otherwise not worth it, but here goes:
- Bounties (size TBD, but minimum full refund of market costs for fully marginal cases, scaling much higher for higher value finds I would have otherwise missed) will be paid for non-obvious films that get 3.5+ stars I would have otherwise not seen, scaling higher for more stars, and as the answer becomes less obvious, if you suggest a film via question creation, or for movies that get 4+ stars that are non-obvious even if it turns out I've already seen them, so long as you had no easy way of knowing that.
