Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThe Grand Budapest Hotel 71.7%Leader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 25, 26, 3:08 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 6:53 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Films resolve YES if I see them and award them with a Like, which almost always happens if and only if I give 4+ stars (there has been one exception that got a 4.0 and no like.)
- Films resolve NO if I see them and do not award them with a Like, which almost always implies 3.5 or fewer stars.
- Films resolve NO if I have enough information that I am 90%+ confident they would resolve NO AND 90%+ confident that I would have be rather forced into seeing them or finishing them.
- Films I am 95%+ confident I will not see by Dec 1, 2030 unless forced to, but where I am insufficiently confident to resolve NO, will resolve to a percentage I think is fair, by default market price but if I think it's wrong I will override.
- I plan to edit/refine from here as I go if this proves interesting, or to stop paying new bounties if this proves too fiddly or otherwise not worth it, but here goes:
- Bounties (size TBD, but minimum full refund of market costs for fully marginal cases, scaling much higher for higher value finds I would have otherwise missed) will be paid for non-obvious films that get 3.5+ stars I would have otherwise not seen, scaling higher for more stars, and as the answer becomes less obvious, if you suggest a film via question creation, or for movies that get 4+ stars that are non-obvious even if it turns out I've already seen them, so long as you had no easy way of knowing that.
Open markets
Sports
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Ben Shelton+49.0pt70.3%
- Carlos Alcaraz-49.0pt29.7%
- Total Vol
- $26.4M
- 24h Vol
- $24.7M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Finals match
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt59.7%
- Carlos Alcaraz40.3%
- Total Vol
- $534.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.5M
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
- Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5+37.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Set 2 Winner+67.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5+39.5pt100%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Bayern Munich13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.6M
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $86.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Alexander Zverev+11.0pt38%
- Ben Shelton+20.0pt28%
- Carlos Alcaraz-37.0pt19%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30M
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MVP Winner?
- New England vs Seattle
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Exact Match Score
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Set 3 Winner
- Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Total Games
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Counter-Strike: 5star vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies??
- Manifold Markets prices The Grand Budapest Hotel at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies? resolve?
- Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Films resolve YES if I see them and award them with a Like, which almost always happens if and only if I give 4+ stars (there has been one exception that got a 4.0 and no like.)