KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before 2030 · —
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Stored price
Before 2030 67.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before 2030 67.5%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$4.5K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before 2030Spread
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Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 12:15 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2030
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- Only a game played after Issuance counts.
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2030
- If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2029
- If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2028
- If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
