Current community forecast
Yes 80%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 12, 25, 12:57 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a subcubic matrix multiplication algorithm be used for the primary training workload of a SOTA large-language model
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve if a chess super grandmaster is beaten in a match by a large language model before 2036.
- The point of this market is to predict if accessible LLMs will become smarter than expert humans.
- The chosen medium for this test is chess.
- Constraints:
- Human chess player must have a classical ELO of over 2700
- Human does not need to be blindfolded.
