Current community forecast
Yes 68.4%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 25, 12:57 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
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KalshiFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiRules
This market will resolve if a chess super grandmaster is beaten in a match by a large language model before 2036.
- The point of this market is to predict if accessible LLMs will become smarter than expert humans.
- The chosen medium for this test is chess.
- Constraints:
- Human chess player must have a classical ELO of over 2700
- Human does not need to be blindfolded.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035? resolve?
- Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve if a chess super grandmaster is beaten in a match by a large language model before 2036.