Current community forecast
Yes 80%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 25, 12:57 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve if a chess super grandmaster is beaten in a match by a large language model before 2036.
- The point of this market is to predict if accessible LLMs will become smarter than expert humans.
- The chosen medium for this test is chess.
- Constraints:
- Human chess player must have a classical ELO of over 2700
- Human does not need to be blindfolded.
