Current community forecast
Yes 84%
Forecasters
181
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Apr 18, 25, 9:11 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsAny study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?
Manifold MarketsPublic LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well.
- Until recently, I would've predicted that that was an AGI-complete problem.
- Of course people used to think grandmaster-level chess would require AGI.
- Until 2022 I was sure that commonsense reasoning and being able to explain jokes would require AGI.
- If subhuman general intelligence can be a superhuman mathematical intelligence, that will be another big update for me.
- What if AGI happens first?
Open markets
Sports
POLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs-7.5pt74%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs-6.5pt65%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 4.5 total runs+0.5pt61%
+26 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.5M
- 24h Vol
- $4.5M
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R11.3%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.4%
- San Francisco7.8%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $131.5M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+27.0pt83.2%
- Milwaukee-26.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood+2.5pt8.8%
- Ludvig Åberg-0.4pt7.9%
- Matt Fitzpatrick+0.7pt7%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57%
- Clement Tabur43%
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+15.0pt61.4%
- Boston-16.0pt38.6%
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? resolve?
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well.