Current community forecast
1+ OpenAI employees resign 53.8%+3.8ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.8 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 8:16 AM UTCOct 3, 26, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the number of full-time employees of OpenAI or Anthropic who voluntarily resign, citing ethical reasons (including but not limited to risks of human extinction or disempowerment), or publicly announce that they will do so, during the month of September 2026, Pacific Time.
- Jacob Coxon counts as one such person for the purposes of this market.
- See his tweet about resigning from Anthropic, which went viral with 712K+ likes as of September 10.
- His resignation was covered in the Wall Street Journal.
- I'll wait for two extra days, in case any resignations happen during September but are only publicized later.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns??
- Manifold Markets prices 1+ OpenAI employees resign at 54% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns? resolve?
- How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns? is scheduled to resolve on October 3, 2026.
- How is How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria