Current community forecast
No 61%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 25, 1:52 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, there is at least one publicly released empirical study with n > 1000 human participants that reports a statistically significant reduction in unassisted problem-solving performance for “heavy AI users” (as defined by the study: e.g., top-quantile usage logs, assigned heavy-use condition, or clearly specified frequent-use threshold) compared to lighter/non-users or to their own baseline when AI is not allowed during the outcome assessment (p < 0.05 or 95% CI excluding zero).
- “Unassisted problem-solving” = tasks completed without AI access at test time (e.g., proctored exams, reasoning/problem-solving assessments where AI tools are prohibited).
- n > 1000 refers to unique participants analyzed (not number of items/tasks/observations).
- Multi-site replications may aggregate across identical protocols if the combined participant count exceeds 1000.
Open markets
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Fentanyl99%
- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $432.5K
- 24h Vol
- $432.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.7pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.3pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.9M
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.4pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Total Vol
- $103.8K
- 24h Vol
- $92.4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
- December 15,+1.0pt75%
- November 30,57%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.8M
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Total Vol
- $97.9K
- 24h Vol
- $73.8K
- Best AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Qwen market share this week
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 61% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? resolve?
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition