KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Fentanyl (99%)
Resolved: Sep 23, 2026, 3:22 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Fentanyl
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 23, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
Fentanyl99%
Zelensky65%
Crypto / Bitcoin5%
Israel / Israeli65%
Cartel99%
Ceasefire1%
NATO50%
Japan / Japanese40%
Event does not qualify3%
Peace in the Middle East7%
Trade97%
Greenland (3+ times)35%
Qatar47%
European Union / EU32%
Biden65%
Saudi86%
Fake News0%
Rare Earth / Mineral99%
Argentina99%
Tariff99%
Hostage7%
Burnham0%
Taiwan5%
Invest / Invested / Investment99%
Billion / Trillion99%
Nobel9%
Putin75%
Abraham Accords41%
AUKUS5%
Drone / Torpedo27%
Russia / Russian65%
Diesel0%
Denmark / Danish42%
Hormuz65%
China / Chinese74%
Nuclear91%
Gaza / Palestine35%
Stock Market99%
Venezuela / Venezuelan99%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline88%
FentanylWon
ZelenskyLost
CartelLost
Japan / JapaneseLost
TradeLost
Greenland (3+ times)Lost
BidenLost
Fake NewsLost
Rare Earth / MineralLost
ArgentinaLost
TariffLost
HostageLost
Invest / Invested / InvestmentLost
Billion / TrillionLost
PutinLost
Drone / TorpedoLost
Russia / RussianLost
DieselLost
Denmark / DanishLost
HormuzLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump say that you will die if you vote Democrat? (before 2029)
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Donald Trump says Greenland (3+ times) as part of any United Nations meeting or event, excluding remarks to the United Nations General Assembly, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the any United Nations meeting or event, excluding remarks to the United Nations General Assembly, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the any United Nations meeting or event, excluding remarks to the United Nations General Assembly, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.