KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 5.8% 91%+14.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$20.9K
Liquidity
$21K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 4:00 PM UTCSep 28, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI this week
KalshiAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Qwen scores above 5.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Sep 21, 2026.
- If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Qwen scores above 6.2% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Fentanyl99%
- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $432.5K
- 24h Vol
- $432.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.7pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.3pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.9M
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.4pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Total Vol
- $103.8K
- 24h Vol
- $92.4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
- December 15,+1.0pt75%
- November 30,57%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.8M
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Total Vol
- $97.9K
- 24h Vol
- $73.8K
- Best AI this week
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- OpenAI market share this week
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Trump officially rename AI?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Qwen market share this week?
- Kalshi prices Above 5.8% at 91% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Qwen market share this week resolve?
- Qwen market share this week is scheduled to resolve on September 28, 2026.
- How is Qwen market share this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Qwen scores above 5.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.