Current community forecast
Yes 60.1%
Forecasters
89
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 19, 25, 11:34 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
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PolymarketRules
The LLM must not be limited to only playing chess.
- For example, if an LLM can play chess and hold a conversation, it counts.
- However, it cannot make use of a non-LLM based chess engine, or non-LLM related computation, like a calculator or a python script.
- A super grandmaster has a FIDE Elo rating of 2700 or more.
- The super GM must be trying to win the game.
- The game format is unspecified.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60.1% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? resolve?
- Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The LLM must not be limited to only playing chess.